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The housing market is in recovery. There's lot of stats to back it up so take your pick:

* Existing home sales are up and supplies are down
* New home sales are up and supplies are way down
* Pending home sales are posting at record paces

And, perhaps, most importantly, the best gauge of the housing market's health -- home values -- is showing consistent improvement. Both private-sector Case-Shiller Index and the government's own Home Price Index showed home prices on the mend.

A year ago Thanksgiving, mortgage rates reached an all-time low. We're approaching those same all-time levels again. But unlike last year, rates should stay low for longer than an hour or two. Mortgage rates will be suppressed until such time as consumer spending returns.

Many analysts believe that confidence correlates to spending. Looking at the trendline chart, they've got good reason -- there relationship between sales and confidence appears to be direct. But there's some analysis worth doing, too.

To be classified as "high-cost", an area's median home price must exceed $365,000. 324 areas qualify nationwide and, in each of those regions, the conforming loan limit has been modified to 115% of the median home price. Neither Chicago nor Cincinnati made the list, though. As a result, homeowners are relegated to the $417,000 limits.

Consumer spending drives the economy. Without spending, there's no growth and, as a result, tepid retail sales reports force Wall Street to rethink its bets on U.S. economic recovery.

It's a primary reason why rates return to 5 percent again and again. The economy is back from the brink -- banks are healthier, investment is returning, household net worth is up -- but consumers continue to stand en garde. Confidence is down.

Conforming mortgages are appropriately named; they "conform" to the mortgage underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Mortgages meeting these criteria are securitized on Wall Street as mortgage-backed bonds.

As mortgage performance has weakened, however, lending standards have tightened. Today's would-be borrowers are asked to document more income, deeper reserves, and higher credit scores. One underwriting area that hasn't tightened, however, is the maximum allowable loan size.

Like in 2006, 2007 and 2008, Autumn 2009 is marked by falling leaves and falling mortgage rates.

The trend looks more like a pattern.

Based on Freddie Mac data of the last 4 years, 30-year fixed mortgage rates rise from January through August, and fall through fall. There's 6 weeks left until January. The clock may be ticking for today's home buyers and rate shoppers.

Overall, this month's foreclosure report is another positive signal in the housing market. Recovery is underway.

For homebuyers looking at foreclosed homes, though, the window for "a deal" may be closing. Since foreclosures became "big business" toward the end of 2008, real estate firms found ways to make buying a foreclosed home faster and cheaper.

It's no surprise that distressed properties now account for nearly 1/3 of home resales.

Since November 2008, 30-year fixed mortgage rates have been range-bound at 5. But 5 percent is unnatural given the current economy. We're not at the same place we were a year ago. Many of the contributing factors to the near-economic collapse are already in repair.

Want to refinance on the FHA Streamline Refi program? Better get a move on. Beginning in just 5 days -- November 17, 2009 -- the FHA changes over to new guidelines for its popular FHA-to-FHA refinance program. Getting approved for a Streamline Refi will be more difficult and more expensive.