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Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may help you.

In total, there are literally hundreds of influences on the day-to-day mortgage rates you and I see from our banks. It's part of what makes predicting mortgage rates so challenging. You never know which of the hundreds are influences are about to come into play. The obvious influences are inflation data, housing stats, and job markets. It's less-than-obvious factors, though, that really screw things up.

Because of the bonds-and-stocks similarities, we should expect for bond markets to behave like stock markets sometimes, too. This week will be one of those times. Mortgage bond markets are ripe for profit-taking and that will be bad for mortgage rates.

On the first Friday of every month, at 8:30 AM ET, the U.S. government releases the Non-Farm Payrolls report, except most people don't call it that. They call it "the jobs report". Tomorrow is the first Friday of the month. The jobs report has always been influential with respect to mortgage rates but, lately, it's of larger import. This is because Wall Street believes that jobs growth is the way forward for the economy. No jobs, no growth.

When the economy hit the skids in September 2008, the government made a massive intervention. In addition to formal stimulus from Congress, the Federal Reserve did what it could to loosen up the credit markets. One of the Fed's most well-known programs was its commitment to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed bonds in the open market. Internal studies from the Fed say the program lowered rates by 1 percent last year. The program ends March 31, 2010.

Studies from inside the Fed say the group's intervention lowered rates by 1 percent last year. We've been getting low rates because the mortgage-backed market is "artificial". The Fed is a non-natural buyer. Starting April 1, 2010, though, life goes back to normal. The Fed is ending its support and the market will be left to its own. It will be ugly for mortgage rate shoppers.

January's job report and retail sales report both went negative, and Pending Home Sales failed to impress. Furthermore, there's been a general softness about the economy and Fed members have gone silent on Fed Funds Rate matters. It's a reversal from December and expectations for 2010 are dialed back a bit. Mortgage rates are falling, but have likely bottomed out.

Need a mortgage rate prediction? I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey may point you in the right direction. The Bankrate.com survey is for conventional, conforming mortgages only. It does not apply to FHA mortgages or jumbo mortgages. Nor is the survey specific to Cincinnati or Chicago. Here's what to expect:

With consumer confidence on the mend, net job gains nearing zero, and Retail Sales rebounding, Wall Street had bid up mortgage rates this month. Mostly, the trading was just jockeying for position ahead of the December 15-16 FOMC meeting. Investors were worried that the Fed would blink; that it would change its economic outlook for 2010 and have to start raising the Fed Funds Rate sooner than forecast; that inflation fears would return. Instead, none of that happened.

At this time last year, our spirits were squashed. Today, though, we have hope. And as the nation regains its footing from what should have been the worst economic depression on record, there's now lingering uncertainty on Wall Street about what's due for the country in the months and years ahead. Rate shoppers be ready.